http://tomderose.com/en-usWed, 11 Aug 2010 15:57:00 GMT10GDRSSFeeds v1.0http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/supply-of-inventory-of-homes-for-sale<div>Another indicator of the condition of the housing market is supply of inventory, measured in months. The indicator is based on the number of homes selling at the present time, and the&nbsp;number of homes for sale at the present time. For example, if 10 homes were sold in July,&nbsp;and there are 100 homes for sale,&nbsp;there would be 10 months of inventory--it would take 10 months to sell the current inventory at the current rate of sale. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Six months of inventory is considered neutral. When there are more than 6 months of inventory, the market is considered to be a buyer's market. When there are less than 6 months of inventory, the market is considered to be a seller's market. In a buyer's market, prices tend to be decreasing. In a seller's market, prices tend to be increasing.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Notice in the graph below that we are close to 14 months of inventory in Whatcom County. Definitely a buyer's market with prices falling. Also notice the cyclical nature of inventory--inventory is lowest in the winter and highest in the summer. Also notice that we are trending up and have been since 2007. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/july_2010_months_inventory.jpg" width="580" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/supply-of-inventory-of-homes-for-sale" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/supply-of-inventory-of-homes-for-sale#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/supply-of-inventory-of-homes-for-saleWed, 11 Aug 2010 15:57:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/percent-of-original-list-price-received-at-sale<div>The percentage that the sale price is of the original list price is another indicator of the health of the housing market. (Here's an example: A house that is listed at $100,000 and sells for $90,000, has a list price to sale price percentage of 90%) Notice in the graph below that the list price/sale price percentage has been continuously trending down since 2007. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This&nbsp;decrease in list price/sale price percentage&nbsp;is another indicator that we are in a buyer's market. Buyers have so many homes to choose from, and they are concerned that the price they pay today for a home will be more than its worth in 6 months, so they sucessfully negotiate the sale price down. Many sellers are happy to get an offer, so they tend to accept lower offers. Also, many sellers are concerned that if they don't sell their home now, it may in fact be worth less in 6 months. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Notice that the list price/sale price percentage in July 2010 was down sharply to 90%. Also notice that the percentage was increasing throughout 2010 up to July. This is likely due to the Federal tax credit--buyers were eager to buy a home and take advantage of the credit, so there was less negotiation going on. In fact, in Whatcom county, there was a shortage of homes listed at around $200,000 or less. So buyers were happy to find a home they could buy, and less likely to pause to negitiate. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/july_2010_L_to_S__.jpg" width="580" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/percent-of-original-list-price-received-at-sale" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/percent-of-original-list-price-received-at-sale#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/percent-of-original-list-price-received-at-saleWed, 11 Aug 2010 14:59:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/signs-indicate-tough-times-ahead-in-real-estate-and-the-economy-in-general<div>There is a lot of data in this graph of home sales, new listings, and pending sales in Whatcom County, and therefore difficult to read. However, the data is import in that it shows where we are headed in real estate sales. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>For this discussion, I'll focus on homes sales in July of 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 (the gray line in the graph). 290 homes sold in July 2007. 230 homes sold In July, 2008. Sals In July, 2009 also were 230.&nbsp; But in July of 2010, home sales were 130. So while sales held from 2008 to 2009, there has been a 43% decrease in July of 2010&nbsp; Furthermore, home sales are trending down in 2010, while they were holding stable in 2009, and trending up in 2008. </div> <div>&nbsp; <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/July_2010.jpg" width="580" /></div> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/signs-indicate-tough-times-ahead-in-real-estate-and-the-economy-in-general" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/signs-indicate-tough-times-ahead-in-real-estate-and-the-economy-in-general#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/08/11/signs-indicate-tough-times-ahead-in-real-estate-and-the-economy-in-generalWed, 11 Aug 2010 14:36:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/prices-homes-list-for-and-sell-for<div>&nbsp;The data displayed in the table show home sales for the last 6 months in a part of Bellingham along Chuckanut Drive. These 6 homes are all of the homes that&nbsp;sold in this area of town for between $300,000 and $600,000. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>What is particularly striking is that many of these homes sold for from $100,000 to $200,000 less than their original list price. Also, most of the homes were on the market for a half year to more than 2 years. These drastic reductions in price, and the length of time it takes to sell a home, is common with higher priced homes ($500,000 and above) in Whatcom County. This segment of the market has been particularly hard hit in the past 2 years. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>It should be pointed out that in nearly all of these home sales, the list price was gradually reduced until it was at or near a fair market price. In general,&nbsp;buyers didn't make offers that were $100,000 less than current list price. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div> <table style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-collapse: collapse; border-top: medium none; border-right: medium none" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: black 1pt solid; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><strong>Original list price</strong></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: black 1pt solid; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><strong>Sale price</strong></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: black 1pt solid; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><strong>Days on market</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$449,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$350,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">330</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$599,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$355,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">200+</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$595,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$390,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">145</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$520,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$432,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">726</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$464,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$390,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">153</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: black 1pt solid; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 99.9pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="133"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$539,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 63pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="84"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">$500,000</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom: black 1pt solid; border-left: #f0f0f0; padding-bottom: 0in; background-color: transparent; padding-left: 5.4pt; width: 1.25in; padding-right: 5.4pt; border-top: #f0f0f0; border-right: black 1pt solid; padding-top: 0in" valign="top" width="120"> <p style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 0pt">&nbsp; 50</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br /><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/prices-homes-list-for-and-sell-for" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/prices-homes-list-for-and-sell-for#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/prices-homes-list-for-and-sell-forWed, 21 Jul 2010 10:52:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/home-buyers-in-whatcom-county-who-are-they<div>Here's a brief analysis of people buying homes and selling homes in Whatcom County in the first 6 months of 2010. The data shows the percentages of buyers and selles who bought or sold to move into a larger home, move into a smaller home, for investment, etc. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div> <table style="width: 359px; height: 126px" border="0" cellspacing="2" cellpadding="2" width="270"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="height: 22px">First-time home buyers</td> <td>20%</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 19px">Selling and moving up to a larger home</td> <td>10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="height: 32px">"Empty nesters"-- selling a larger home in which they raised their family and buying a smaller home</td> <td>10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 289px; height: 18px">Relocating into or out of the area</td> <td>10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Buying for investment</td> <td style="width: 61px; height: 18px">10%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The remaining 40% of buyers and sellers are doing so for various other reasons. The large number of first time home buyers is likely due to the first time buyers tax credit that in April. Many homes were purchased in the last few weeks of April so buyers could take advantage of this $8000 credit. </div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/home-buyers-in-whatcom-county-who-are-they" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/home-buyers-in-whatcom-county-who-are-they#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/07/21/home-buyers-in-whatcom-county-who-are-theyWed, 21 Jul 2010 10:37:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/19/buying-or-selling-a-condo-in-bellingham<div>This is a great time to buy a condo in Bellingham. If you have to sell a condo in Bellingham, brace yourself. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The graph below shows the list price and the sale price of all condos for sale in Bellingham in the past 14 months. Notice that in most months, the sale price is considerably below the list price. There are some months when the sale price is above the list price. That's because the data includes all condos for sale, and all condos sold. If expensive condos sell, and there have been a number of million dollar sales, the data reflect those high-end sales. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Notice also that the list price of condos continues to go down: from a median price of around $250,000 14 months ago, to a median list price of around $220,000 last month. That's about a 12% reduction in price--consistent with the decrease we have experienced in all home sales in Bellingham. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>But the situation is even worse than this graph indicates. The list prices used to create this graph are actually the last list price before the condo sold. Many condos go through a series of price reductions until they get to a price at which they get offers. For example, a condo that recently sold was listed for 880 days, the original list price was $950,000, and it sold for $660,000. Not all condos are reduced this drastically before they sell, but many are. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>If you want to buy a condo, step up. If you are selling, brace yourself.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 522px; height: 351px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/condo_sales.png" width="522" height="351" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/19/buying-or-selling-a-condo-in-bellingham" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/19/buying-or-selling-a-condo-in-bellingham#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/19/buying-or-selling-a-condo-in-bellinghamSat, 19 Jun 2010 12:14:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/15/bellingham-home-sales-in-may-compared-to-april<table style="width: 524px; height: 88px" border="1" cellspacing="2" cellpadding="2" width="524" align="right"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <div>Months of </div> <div>Supply</div> </td> <td style="width: 105px; height: 36px"> <div>Sale Price/List </div> <div>Price Ratio</div> </td> <td> <div>Pending/New </div> <div>Listings Ratio</div> </td> <td> <div>Median Sale </div> <div>Price</div> </td> <td> <div>Average Days </div> <div>on Market&nbsp;</div> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <div>&nbsp;8.7 months</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;92%</div> </td> <td style="width: 96px; height: 21px"> <div>&nbsp;76%</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;$280,000</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;95</div> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <div>&nbsp;6.9 months</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;91%</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;42%</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;$270,000</div> </td> <td> <div>&nbsp;104</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div style="font-size: 18pt"><span style="font-size: 14pt">&nbsp;</span></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div style="font-size: 10pt"><strong>April</strong></div> <div><span style="font-size: 8pt">&nbsp;</span></div> <div><strong style="font-size: 10pt">May</strong> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;The data in this table show home sales in Bellingham for April and May. They show a mixed bag of how the market is doing. </div> <ul> <li>Months of supply has decreased from April to May. That's good. Months of supply is the number of months it would take to sell everything currently on the market. The fewer the months of inventory, the better.</li> <li>Sale price as a percentage of list price is virtually unchanged at 91%</li> <li>The number of pendings as a percentage of new listings has decreased. This is bad. More homes were pended (mutual acceptance of terms of sale between buyer and seller) comared to new listings in April than in May. This could be due to the face that more homes were put on the market in May than in April.</li> <li>Median sale price has gone down $10,000 in one month. The decrease is most likely due to the sale of less expensive homes, and an overall decrease in home values.</li> <li>Homes are on the market an average of 104 days compared to 95 days one month ago. It takes 9 days longer on average to sell a home. </li> </ul> <p>So, a mixed bag. But most of the data indicate that the market was worse in May than it was in April. </p><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/15/bellingham-home-sales-in-may-compared-to-april" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/15/bellingham-home-sales-in-may-compared-to-april#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/15/bellingham-home-sales-in-may-compared-to-aprilWed, 16 Jun 2010 10:00:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/10/risks-and-positive-factors-associated-with-recovery-of-the-local-real-estate-market<div>The risks associated with the real estate market recovering are:&nbsp;</div> <ul> <li>Expiration of homebuyer tax credits--lower priced homes sold vogorously in the weeks before the tax credit ended, and then markedly slowed since then</li> <li>Mortgage rates rising by year end--there is some speculation and concern that interest rates will go up if we experience inflation</li> <li>Increasing delinquencies and foreclosures--short sales and foreclosures continue, this drives all prices down, and pushes home buyers out of the homeowner market</li> <li>Continued slowdown of internal migration in the U.S. due in part to underwater homeowners</li> <li>Potential for weak macroeconomic recovery </li> </ul> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Positive factors that suggst the real estate market will recover are: </div> <ul> <li>Local employment growth is coming--the state gained jobs in January and March</span></span></li> <li>Washington state recovery is expected to outpace national recovery (Arun Raha, Washington state economist)</li> <li>The Canadian dollar is strong--Our border is with Canada, not Greece</li> <li>Locational advantages of the region: Water and mountain views, Recreational amenities, Lower-cost alternative to Vancouver &amp; Seattle </li> </ul><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/10/risks-and-positive-factors-associated-with-recovery-of-the-local-real-estate-market" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/10/risks-and-positive-factors-associated-with-recovery-of-the-local-real-estate-market#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/10/risks-and-positive-factors-associated-with-recovery-of-the-local-real-estate-marketThu, 10 Jun 2010 12:28:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/09/home-sales-are-improving<div>In the graph below, you can see how home sales in Whatcom County have rebounded from last year, and are aproaching what they were in 2008. While 2008 was a very sluggish year for home sales, it was better than last year. So this rebound, while not wonderful news, is certainly good news. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 544px; height: 366px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/home_sales_08_09_10.jpg" width="544" height="366" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/09/home-sales-are-improving" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/09/home-sales-are-improving#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/09/home-sales-are-improvingWed, 09 Jun 2010 10:51:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/07/mortgage-interest-rates-are-low<div>I'm sure you've seen advertisements that read "historically low interest rates". They always make me cringe--oh my, more exagerated advertising. But it's true, The chart below shows rates from 1970 to the present. At the time of this writing, the rate for a 30 yr conventional mortgage was 4.825%. That's low. I can recall my first mortgage in the early 80's--16%. Was that a shock. But I did it. With interest rates this low, buying a home becomes more affordable. And given the fact that homes sales are still sluggish, although they are improving, i suspect that mortgage interest rates will continue to remain low--just not sure how long. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 552px; height: 365px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/interest_rates.jpg" width="552" height="365" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/07/mortgage-interest-rates-are-low" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/07/mortgage-interest-rates-are-low#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/07/mortgage-interest-rates-are-lowWed, 09 Jun 2010 10:41:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/03/housing-affordability-in-whatcom-county<div>There has been quite a bit written about the affordability of homes in Whatcom County. Sometimes, bellingham is rated as one of the most expensive cities in the US to buy a home relative to income. The argument has been that housing is way too expensive in Whatcom County, and Bellingham in particular, for the income of the people who live here. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Counter arguments have been that 11,000 students are factored in to the average income, and since students generally have&nbsp;low income, their inclusion&nbsp;gives the inaccurate indication that housing is too expensive. Another counter argument is that since there are so many retired people living in Bellingham, and since it is difficult to assess the income of retirees because of the varied sources of their income, that also gives an inaccurate indication that housing is too expensive. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;Well, as can be seen in the chart below, since 2008, housing in Whatcom County has in general become more affordable. (Anything above the line indicates affordability.) And indications are that the trend will continue. Notice, however, that housing is still unaffordable for first time home buyers. The fact that homes are unaffordable for first time buyers is at least partly why the $8000 credit for first time home buyers was very popular. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 528px; height: 350px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/affordability_index.png" width="528" height="350" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/03/housing-affordability-in-whatcom-county" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/03/housing-affordability-in-whatcom-county#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/06/03/housing-affordability-in-whatcom-countyThu, 03 Jun 2010 15:53:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/28/population-growth-slows-in-whatcom-county<div>There is speculation that one reason for the stall of the housing market in Whatcom County, particularly homes $500,000 and above, is because people have not been moving in to the area and buying homes. The graph below shows that population growth in Whatcom County has slowed in the past few years. Of interest is that it hasn't gone to zero--population is still growing. Also, population growth has been relatively small--1-2% compared to what it was in the late 80's and around 1990. That was when home prices really exploded.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/population_growth.jpg" width="520" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/28/population-growth-slows-in-whatcom-county" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/28/population-growth-slows-in-whatcom-county#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/28/population-growth-slows-in-whatcom-countyFri, 28 May 2010 11:42:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/27/unemployment-in-whatcom-county-affects-homes-sales<div>Annual employment growth in Whatcom County certainly mirrors the sale of homes in the county. In the graph below, employment was growing in 2004 at it's great rate in nearly 10 years. 2004 was also the peak in the number of homes sold in the county. In 2009, employment actually shrank by more that 3%, the period of the lowest home sales in the county. So, no surpirses here. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>There are indicators that enployment is beginning to turn around at the national level--jobs are being created, people are being hired. Whatcom county generally lags behind the nation in all economic conditions, so the turn around will occur later, but maybe this year. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 549px; height: 365px" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/unemployment_in_Whatcom.jpg" width="549" height="365" alt="" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/27/unemployment-in-whatcom-county-affects-homes-sales" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/27/unemployment-in-whatcom-county-affects-homes-sales#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/27/unemployment-in-whatcom-county-affects-homes-salesThu, 27 May 2010 11:04:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/25/single-family-home-construction-permits-boomed-in-unincorporated-whatcom-county<div>As prices increased in Bellingham and other cities in Whatcom County through the 80's and 90's, people began to look for less expensive homes and land outside of cities. The graph below shows housing starts in unincorporated Whatcom County (dark blue) compared to Bellingham (light blue/green) and other cities in Whatcom County (red). Notice that at the peak of housing starts in 2005, there were over&nbsp;1000 starts in Whatcom County vs around 400 in Bellingham, and 200 in other cities in Whatcom County. Also notice the plumit in housing starts in 2009. New construction has essentially gone to zero in Whatcom County. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/permits_Whatcom_Co.jpg" width="580" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/25/single-family-home-construction-permits-boomed-in-unincorporated-whatcom-county" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/25/single-family-home-construction-permits-boomed-in-unincorporated-whatcom-county#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/25/single-family-home-construction-permits-boomed-in-unincorporated-whatcom-countyWed, 26 May 2010 10:16:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/24/home-sale-prices-in-whatcom-county<div>This graph is from a presentation made by Julie Hansen, Professor of Economics, WWU. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The graph shows the median price for homes sold in Whatcom County from 1982 to 2009. Notice that even though home sales started to decline in 2004-2005, prices peaked in 2007. Prices have been in decline ever since. There is some signs that prices are leveling off. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Perhaps the next time we see such a steep rise in prices as we did from 2003 to 2006, we will know that it can't be sustained, that we are headed for a collapse. Canada and other countries are intervening to avoid such a "bubble". </div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/median_home_price.jpg" width="580" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/24/home-sale-prices-in-whatcom-county" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/24/home-sale-prices-in-whatcom-county#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/24/home-sale-prices-in-whatcom-countyMon, 24 May 2010 13:14:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/22/home-sales-and-building-permits-in-whatcom-county<div>This is the first entry of a series based on a presentation made by Julie Hansen, Professor of Economics, WWU. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This graph shows home sales (dark blue) from 1986 through 2009, and single family building permits (light blue/green) during the same period. It's interesting to see that current homes sales are almost down at the level they were in 1986, and building permits are nearly exactly at the level they were in 1986. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Also notice that home sales peaked in 2004, and building permits peakd in 2005. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Notice that homes sales have fallen to less than half of what they were at the peak in 2004. However, building permits have fallen to less than a third of what they were in 2005. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This graph does not show data for 2010 which indicates that homes sales and building permits have leveled off and are no longer in decline. </div> <div><img alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/home_sales_and_permits.jpg" width="516" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/22/home-sales-and-building-permits-in-whatcom-county" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/22/home-sales-and-building-permits-in-whatcom-county#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/22/home-sales-and-building-permits-in-whatcom-countySat, 22 May 2010 11:15:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/06/homes-sales-show-signs-of-leveling-off<div>Home sales in Bellingham may&nbsp;no longer be dropping. There is some indication that we have "hit the bottom"; that we may be leveled off. The graph below (blue line in graph) shows total home sales in Bellingham from the beginning of 2007 to the present. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>There are seasonal variations--the greatest number of sales most years are in the second and third quarters of the year, and then they drop off in the winter. But overall sales in the first quarter of 2010 are almost the same as they were in the first quarter of 2009. And sales in April, although not completely available yet, suggest that sales are&nbsp;up compared to&nbsp;the same time in 2009. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>However, this leveling off of home sales does not apply to homes $500,000 and above. The number of sales of those homes (green line in graph) continue to drop.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>April and May sales should give a good indication of the health of the housing market, and the economy overall. April data will be available soon and will be reported in this blog. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 543px; height: 312px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/home_sales_by_quarter.jpg" width="543" height="312" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/06/homes-sales-show-signs-of-leveling-off" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/06/homes-sales-show-signs-of-leveling-off#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/05/06/homes-sales-show-signs-of-leveling-offThu, 06 May 2010 16:58:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/30/well-its-happening-in-seattle-when-is-it-our-turn<div>These two graphs provide interesting information about homes sales in King County and Whatcom County. The top graph is for King County. The bottom graph is for Whatcom County. One very dramatic difference between the two graphs is pending sales in March. Notice the percentage of pending sales in March compared to the number of homes for sale in King County--29%. The same comparison in Whatcom County is 14%. Nearly half!</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This increase in sales in King County has another effect--there are fewer homes for sale in King County because more homes are selling. In King County, the number of homes for sale in March of this year is much less than the number of homes for sale a year ago. This creates a seller's market which should lead to an increase in prices. In comparison, in Whatcom County, there are considerably more homes for sale this March than there were one year ago. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>As I've said in previous entries, Bellingham typically lags about 3 months behind Seattle. Therefore, what's happening in King County should be happening here soon. Is it our turn? </div> <div><img style="width: 447px; height: 374px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/King_County_Sales.png" width="447" height="374" /></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 454px; height: 380px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/Whatcom_County_Sales.png" width="454" height="380" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/30/well-its-happening-in-seattle-when-is-it-our-turn" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/30/well-its-happening-in-seattle-when-is-it-our-turn#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/30/well-its-happening-in-seattle-when-is-it-our-turnFri, 30 Apr 2010 12:10:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/26/condo-sales-in-bellinghams-west-side<div>&nbsp;This graph shows condos for sale, and condos sold in area code 98225--west of I5 in Bellingham. Notice, for example, that in March of 2010, there were 63 condos for sale, and 3 condos sold. Also notice that the ratio of condos for sale vs. condos sold has not changed much over the past 15 months. This is a very high inventory of condos for sale, and a very small number of condos sold. Condos were overbuilt in Bellingham, as they were in most of the US. Because of this oversupply of condos, prices of condos have decreased, and the time it takes to see most condos remains high. </div> <div><img style="width: 405px; height: 338px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/condos_for_sale_April_2010.png" width="405" height="338" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/26/condo-sales-in-bellinghams-west-side" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/26/condo-sales-in-bellinghams-west-side#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/26/condo-sales-in-bellinghams-west-sideTue, 27 Apr 2010 18:25:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/21/less-expensive-homes-are-selling-more-expensive-homes-are-not-selling<div>This graph shows the sale of homes during the fourth quarter of 2007 through 2010. The height of the bars represent percentages of total sales. The graph provides compelling evidence for the increased sales of less expensive homes, and the decreased sales of more expensive homes in Bellingham during the past 4 years. For example, in 2007, 17% of all homes sales were $500,000 and above; 50% of all home sales were below $300,000. In sharp contrast in 2010, 8% of all homes sales were $500,000 and above; 72% of all home sales were below $300,000. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This trend is partly attributable to the decrease in the price of homes--there are more homes priced below $300,000 than there were in 2007, home prices have dropped considerably since 2007. However, this trend is also attributable to the fact that people are buying less expensive homes, and not buying more expensive homes. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 418px; height: 279px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/first_Q_07-10.jpg" width="418" height="279" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/21/less-expensive-homes-are-selling-more-expensive-homes-are-not-selling" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/21/less-expensive-homes-are-selling-more-expensive-homes-are-not-selling#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/04/21/less-expensive-homes-are-selling-more-expensive-homes-are-not-sellingWed, 21 Apr 2010 10:59:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/31/bellingham-home-prices-expected-to-increase-in-2010<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">&nbsp;<img style="width: 190px; height: 33px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/CNNMoney_LOGO2_0.gif" width="190" height="33" /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt">&nbsp;</p> <div style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt"><span style="font-family: 'AkzidenzGroteskBE-Regular','sans-serif'; font-size: 9pt"><br /> <br /> CNN Money.com reported in March 2010 that Bellingham </span><span style="font-family: 'AkzidenzGroteskBE-Regular','sans-serif'; font-size: 9pt">was ranked #13 out of all major US Cities for the </span><span style="font-family: 'AkzidenzGroteskBE-Regular','sans-serif'; font-size: 9pt">highest expected home price appreciation for 2010, </span><span style="font-family: 'AkzidenzGroteskBE-Regular','sans-serif'; font-size: 9pt">coming in at an expectation of 2.9%.</span> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>We haven't seen any appreciation yet this year in Bellingham. However, Seattle is having a great housing market boom these days and Bellingham, which usually lags behind Seattle&nbsp;by about 3 months,&nbsp;should experience the same boom in a month or two. Time will tell. </div> </div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/31/bellingham-home-prices-expected-to-increase-in-2010" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/31/bellingham-home-prices-expected-to-increase-in-2010#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/31/bellingham-home-prices-expected-to-increase-in-2010Wed, 31 Mar 2010 10:56:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/27/february-home-sales-in-bellingham<div>&nbsp;The table below shows home sold in Bellingham during February. It is divided into homes that did not have a price reduction--"Priced Right", and homes that required at least one price reduction--"Priced Above the Market". A total of 41 homes sold. When there was no price reduction, homes on average sold for 98% of their original list price, and were on the market for 46 days. When there was a list price reduction, homes on average sold fo 87% of original list price, and were on the market for 138 days. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 495px; height: 449px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/March_stats.jpg" width="495" height="449" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/27/february-home-sales-in-bellingham" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/27/february-home-sales-in-bellingham#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/27/february-home-sales-in-bellinghamSat, 27 Mar 2010 11:29:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/22/home-sales-in-seattle-vs-sales-in-bellingham<div>There is a very strong home sales market in Seattle these days. And as people are fond of saying: "Bellingham is usually about 3 months behind&nbsp;Seattle." So Bellingham should have an upsurge in sales in a month or two. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The graph below shows homes&nbsp;for sale, pended, and sold in Seattle through February. Notice the </div> <div>big upswing in pending sales in February. Pendings in February are 29% of all homes for sale. That is a very active market. </div> <div><img style="width: 475px; height: 396px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/sales_seattle_2_10.jpg" width="475" height="396" /></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>In comparison, the graph below shows homes for sale, pended, and sold in Bellingham through February. Notice the upswing in pending sales in February--not as big as in Seattle, but still considerable. Pendings in February are 18% of all homes for sale. Though not as strong as Seattle, it is very promising. </div> <div><img style="width: 490px; height: 409px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/sales_bellingham_2_10.jpg" width="490" height="409" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/22/home-sales-in-seattle-vs-sales-in-bellingham" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/22/home-sales-in-seattle-vs-sales-in-bellingham#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/22/home-sales-in-seattle-vs-sales-in-bellinghamMon, 22 Mar 2010 11:56:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/pricing-your-home-right-a-case-study<div>In previous entries, I've talked about the importance of pricing a home "right" for the current market. If a home is not priced right, it sits on the market for many days, and usually has at least one price reduction before selling. In contrast, when a home is priiced right for the market, it is on the market for a shorter period of time, and it does not require a price reduction to sell.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>Here's an actual case study that demonstrates the importance of pricing a home right. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>About 14 months ago, a home sold for $285,000 in a northside neighborhood in Bellingham. About 45 days later in the same neighborhood, another home was listed for sale. This home was nearly identical to the home that sold for $285,000. But the listing agent and sellers decided to list this home for $299,000, just $14,000 more than the home that just sold for $285,000. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The newly listed home sat on the market with no offers. After about two months, the price was reduced by $10,000, and still it didn't sell. This went on for about a year. After 10 price reductions, the home sold for $189,000, about 12 months later. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>So, this home sold for narly $100,000 less than what a comparable home sold for, and was on the market for about a year. All because the home was priced just slightly about the fair market price. Home buyers are very smart. They easily notice when a home is priced too high for the current market. Missing the right price by even a few percent can result in the home selling for far less, in this case nearly one-third.</div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/pricing-your-home-right-a-case-study" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/pricing-your-home-right-a-case-study#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/pricing-your-home-right-a-case-studyFri, 12 Mar 2010 11:15:00 GMThttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/home-sales-in-bellingham-1990-through-2009<div> <hr /> </div> <div>&nbsp;The graph on the left shows the average and median price of homes sold in Bellingham from 1990 through 2009. Notice that the price of homes peaked in 2007.</div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The graph on the right shows the number of homes sold in Bellingham in the same time period. Notice that the number of homes sold peaked in 2004. Prices are still relatively high compared to 2004 and earlier. However, the number of homes sold has never been as low since 1990 as it is now. </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div><img style="width: 252px; height: 555px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/median_price_Bellingham.jpg" width="252" height="555" /></div> <div>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<img style="width: 235px; height: 423px" alt="" align="left" src="http://tomderose.com/images/number_sold_Bellingham.jpg" width="235" height="423" /></div><P><a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/home-sales-in-bellingham-1990-through-2009" target="_blank">Permalink</a> | <a href="http://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/home-sales-in-bellingham-1990-through-2009#comments" target="_blank">Comments</a></P>Tom DeRosehttp://tomderose.com/blog/2010/03/12/home-sales-in-bellingham-1990-through-2009Fri, 12 Mar 2010 10:36:00 GMT